Are LLMs The Kodak Moment for Programmers?

When Kodak pioneered the first commercially available digital camera back in 1991, it instigated a seismic shift in the photography industry. All of a sudden, the intricate skills associated with film development, darkroom techniques, and manual focusing were swept aside, replaced by digital point-and-click convenience. This dramatic change not only democratized the craft, making it accessible to the masses, but it also led to the devaluation of traditional photographic skills. Today, we find ourselves at a similar crossroads with the advent of large language models (LLMs) in programming.

LLMs like GPT-4 are redefining the landscape of programming, simplifying the process of writing code to a level unprecedented before. Much akin to how digital cameras supplanted the complexities of traditional photography, LLMs are capable of abstracting complex syntax and coding structures, enabling programmers to draft their code with relative ease. All you need is a simple English command of what you want your code to achieve, and the AI does the rest.

While the benefits are evident, particularly for beginners and non-coders, this shift has profound implications for professional programmers. Traditional skills like knowledge of complex syntax, algorithms, data structures, and understanding idiosyncrasies of languages and frameworks, risk becoming obsolete, akin to how the intricate understanding of film and darkrooms is today in the world of photography.

This, in turn, threatens to devalue the market value of skilled programmers. Just as countless photographers found their expertise diminished in the face of digital photography, programmers could experience a similar fate. The proliferation of LLMs could trigger an oversupply of code creators, thus driving down the demand for traditional programming skills and consequently lowering the wages of programming professionals.

Much like the Kodak moment led to a massive restructuring of the photography industry, the "LLM moment" could result in a significant upheaval in the world of programming. While it undeniably democratizes the ability to code, it simultaneously presents a potential threat to professional programmers and their market value. As we move forward in this era of AI-led innovation, it is vital for the industry to adapt and redefine the skill set that makes a coder indispensable.